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Before you go any further, I want to make sure you know what you are looking at. This IS NOT an attempt to guess what the actual selection committee is going to do. If that is what you’re looking for, check out Jon Teitel’s bracket by CLICKING HERE. He is one of the best people on the planet at accurately guessing the selection committee. I am not nearly as good at it as he is, and I’m not even going to try to be.
This is simply what the field would look like if the season ended today, and if I was a committee of one. In other words, this is what I personally think it SHOULD be, not what I think it WILL be. I look at a lot of data when doing this, but I’m really just continually asking myself just one question. How difficult was it for a team to win the games that they did with the opportunities that they had?
Below are some comments where I explain some of the picks, and below that some of the staff members will share their thoughts. I must say that Hoops HD Staff Member should disagree with ANYTHING that I have done!! If they do, then THEY ARE FLAT OUT WRONG!!
-All the auto-bids are indicated with an asterisk (*). If anyone had to be moved a seedline to meet the bracketing rules, their original seed is indicated in parenthesis ().
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Seton Hall, Iowa, Oregon, Wake Forest, Richmond, UNLV, Ole Miss, NC State, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Memphis, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Colorado, Butler, Cincinnati, Utah, Drake
COMMENTS FROM DAVID GRIGGS:
-For the first time all year, Houston is my overall #1 seed. I think a strong case can be made for both UConn and Purdue, especially when you look at the paper, but Houston has consistently competed and won on the road, and they lead what looks to be the strongest conference in the country, and while their overall OOC SOS is weak, they did play a few showcaese games (or tried to) against Dayton, Xavier, Utah, and Texas A&M. That’s nowhere near as good as Purdue’s, but it’s not exactly a pastry cart either. Speaking of pastry carts…
-Most of the Big 12’s OOC SOS schedules are atrocious, but for the teams that I have as protected seeds, they at least beat a few teams OOC that are in the field. Baylor’s OOC SOS is actually pretty solid, as is Kansas’s, and while Iowa State’s is terrible, they did at least beat Iowa (I guess). It’s just that the rest of Iowa State’s profile is strong despite the weak OOC SOS that you almost have to give them a protected seed.
-I have Tennessee as my last #1 seed and Arizona as my top #2 seed. The win at Alabama is what led me to give it to the Vols, although it pretty much is just 1A and 1B. Arizona also beat Alabama, but Tennessee beat them at Alabama, so I value that slightly more, and think their wins at Kentucky, at Wisconsin, and their overall strength of record being 4th is what led me to pick the Vols.
-I have Dayton on the #9 line and I realize that is probably lower than anyone else who does brackets. If you look at 1000 others, almost everyone will have Dayton a couple of lines higher. I just don’t think they look any better than a #9 seed. I was actually impressed with how they played at Loyola Chicago. I know they lost, and I know Loyola is nowhere near the bubble, but that’s still a very tough place to play and a very hard game to win. But, they didn’t win it, and when I say I was impressed, I was “9 seed” impressed, which is about where I’ve thought they should be for the past month. They have no wins against anyone in the field. They are two games behind Richmond in the A10 standings, who is not in the field, and neither is anyone else in the A10. What they’ve done is good! The Flyers should be selected! And…they should be on the #9 line!
-For you bracketing rules junkies, you may notice something unusual on the 11 and 12 lines. My seedlist was: 45) South Florida (at-large), 46) McNeese (auto-bid), 47) Appalachian State (auto-bid), and 48) James Madison (at-large). This results in James Madison being placed a seedline higher than App State even though they are lower on the seedlist. I checked with the bracketing experts and they confirmed that this was the proper placement.
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STAFF COMMENTS:
From Chad:
– I have no problem with Griggs taking Houston #1 overall. Although neither Purdue nor UConn lost this week, Houston picked up another huge road win in the gauntlet of the Big 12 (at Oklahoma) and has made this a 1A, 1B and 1C scenario heading down the stretch. I also am fine with Tennessee as the fourth #1 seed after their great win at Alabama.
– Boise State on the 5 line (even though it appears they were a 6 seed that was moved up a line for bracketing purposes) is ridiculous. To have them move up means they were at the top of the 6 line. I can make a case for the bottom of the 7 line at best for the Broncos. This teams has four losses outside of Quad 1 and only one non-conference win against anyone in the field (and that was over St. Mary’s back in early December when the Gaels were playing like trash). A 5 seed is within striking distance of a protected seed, and Boise State is nowhere near that realm. San Diego State (under-seeded on the 6 line) is the Mountain West team that is toeing a top 4 seed line spot. Oh, and the Aztecs are a better team than Boise State in any metric including the eye test.
– Dayton is, as Griggs noted, under-seeded by a few lines. But they are not that far away from the 9 line in my opinion so I will not yell and scream about it. I will note that they play a very ugly style of basketball, and they are a team that you really need to look beyond the “eye test” when placing in the field.
– South Florida as an at-large (which I can live with) shows me that Griggs is assuming the highest rated team from each conference is its auto-bid winner (thus, FAU gets the American auto bid). Then how does he explain giving App State the auto bid from the Sun Belt over James Madison? James Madison has lost to two teams all season (albeit one off those teams was App State twice). However, Appalachian have *FIVE* losses to Quad 3 and 4 teams and only one win over a solid tournament team (Auburn, and that was at home!). JMU should be the only Sun Belt team in this field.
– Finally, I have issues with both Pitt and Providence being in this field at all. Pitt has only two wins against tournament caliber teams, and one of those was at Duke in a game where the Blue Devils were missing two of their top players. On the other hand, the Panthers have four losses against teams not in the field, including being swept by Syracuse and losing at home to a Missouri team that had not even won a single SEC game this season. Providence does have a nice pile of very good wins, but they are 8-11 against the top three tiers — which means they have a losing record in all games against opponents with any type of a pulse. That spells NIT to me. I would suggest one of the Pac 12 teams (Utah or Colorado), Iowa, Seton Hall or a suddenly surging Memphis team as alternate selections. Or maybe just give auto bids to Richmond and UNLV to avoid having to hold your nose too much.
From Stalica:
– Kansas might be the toughest team to place among the protected seeds today. Half their schedule involves Tier 1 games and they are only 7-7 in those games (which is low by KU standards). What I’m curious to see is are they closer to the 2 line (as in are they #9 overall) or closer to the 4 line (as in potentially #12 overall)?
– I would have entertained arguments for Utah State being on the 5/6 line as opposed to Boise State right now. The Aggies have a head-to-head sweep against Boise and have a very respectable 11-4 (including 7-4 true road games) record away from home. The nonconference strength of schedule isn’t great, but Utah State only has one loss outside of Tier 1. Boise State does have multiple Tier 2/3 losses. Not exactly 5/6 seed stuff Griggs.
– I’m also convinced that Wisconsin and Michigan State both have compromising pictures/dossiers of people on the Selection Committee. The Badgers are in free fall right now and Michigan State is a team that frankly should be in the First Four (if they’re even in at all).
– I do like the South Florida/James Madison picks for final at-larges, although I would encourage both teams to at least reach their conference championship games to remain in those spots. I think Chad gave enough compelling reasons that Pitt should not be in the field, although I could stomach the Providence pick. If Richmond does win the A-10 regular season title, I would also be fine with the Spiders being at least an at-large caliber team right now.
– Remember when we thought Gonzaga was all but dead and buried? Road wins at Kentucky, San Francisco and Saint Mary’s have completely changed their fortunes and I’m sure the #1 seeds are hoping Gonzaga wins the WCC Tournament so they don’t potentially face the Zags in the 2nd round.
– I also would not be giving Memphis the Last Rites just yet. They still have one more regular season game at Florida Atlantic, and winning that one would (in my book anyway) put them back on the right side of the bubble. It would also push FAU even closer to the precipice should that happen.