Hoops HD

Hoops HD Daily Rundown, Tuesday, Mar 5th

Posted on March 5, 2024 by David Griggs

NEWS, NOTES, AND LINKS:

-For our latest (and last of the regular season) HOOPS HD REPORT Video Podcast, which has our nightly CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK VIDEO NOTEBOOK at the end – CLICK HERE

-I want to sincerely congratulate Grambling for clinching at least a share of 1st place in the SWAC last night with their 69-60 win at Bethune Cookman. This is a program that has certainly seen some lows, but they have an amazing campus culture and a rich athletic history, and it has been a joy as a fan of the sport to watch them become competitive within the SWAC, and now they will be finishing as the 1st place team! Well done Tigers!!

-Other than that it was kind of a chalky night. Eastern Washington got a huge scare from a Sacramento State team I think we were all expecting them to blow out, but they got the 91-88 win on the road and end the regular season on a 4-game winning streak.

-Duke had no trouble at NC State, and Texas hung with Baylor early, but the Bears came back in the second half and got another Big 12 win.

SURVIVAL BOARD WATCH (click here to see the whole board):

-BALL STATE AT KENT STATE (MAC). Ball State is eliminated if they lose tonight

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-PURDUE AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). Purdue has an amazing resume for the season, and even if they lose today they are probably still on the #1 line for now. Having said that, one thing that is missing from Purdue’s profile is a true road win against a solid protected seed. They did get the win earlier against Wisconsin, but the Badgers have digressed since then. So, this would still be a big win for Purdue if they can pull it off. Illinois looks like a protected seed, their fans should be jacked way up for this one, and it would be another nice win on their resume if they can manage to get this one.

-NOTRE DAME AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). Notre Dame has surprised some people lately, but those surprises have come at home against teams that aren’t quite as good as the Tarheels. UNC should roll in this one and stay in the 1-2 seed range.

-ALABAMA AT FLORIDA (SEC). Alabama is looking to (yellow) hammer down a protected seed, and a road win in a game like this could all but lock it up. It won’t be easy (which is obviously why it would be such a good win for Alabama). The Gators are coming off a loss at South Carolina, but they have been a noticeably improved team over the last three weeks, are really starting to hit their stride, and can improve their NCAA Tournament seed quite a bit between now and the end.

-TULANE AT SOUTH FLORIDA (American). South Florida is squarely on the bubble and they need to win out in order to stay there.

-SYRACUSE AT CLEMSON (ACC). Syracuse is getting closer and closer to the bubble, and if they can get a road win in a game like this it may be enough to move them to the right side of it. Clemson is coming off a somewhat surprising loss to Notre Dame and will be looking to bounce back tonight at home. They are pretty much a lock for the NCAA Tournament and are just playing for seeding at this point.

-TEXAS TECH AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12). Texas Tech is a virtual lock for the NCAA Tournament and is just playing to help out their seeding. A win in this game would help even though Oklahoma State is nowhere near the field. It would give the Red Raiders another road win.

-CINCINNATI AT OKLAHOMA (Big 12). Oklahoma will skate into the NCAA Tournament so long as they are able to hold serve the rest of the way. Cincinnati is outside the bubble so the Sooners need this one at home.

-AUBURN AT MISSOURI (SEC). Auburn is within reach of a protected seed and should get there so long as they hold serve. That would mean winning on the road against a very weak Mizzou team tonight.

-KANSAS STATE AT KANSAS (Big 12). There is some debate over where Kansas should be on the seedlist, but pretty much everyone agrees that they are a protected seed. They’re at home in a rivalry game, and while they lost the first meeting between these two, they weren’t at home for that game. K State would probably need to win out until the Big 12 Championship Game to get any sort of a look from the committee.

-DAYTON AT SAINT LOUIS (Atlantic Ten). Dayton is safely inside the bubble and most are projecting them into the top half of the bracket. They should stay in that range so long as they can hold serve. They are coming off a loss, so they do need to bounce back tonight. Another thing about this game is that it is the Arch Baron Cup!! It is the most intense rivalry in all of sports!!!

-GEORGIA TECH AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). Wake is squarely on the bubble and needs to hold serve tonight in order to stay there. A loss at home to a team that’s nowhere near the fiedl may bury their postseason hopes.

-FLORIDA STATE AT PITTSBURGH (ACC). Pitt is another team that is right on the bubble, and perhaps just outside of it. Either way, they cannot afford a home loss to a team that’s nowhere near the field.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT DEPAUL (Big East). Saint John’s is clinging onto the bubble for dear life, and simply cannot afford a loss on the road to a team that is as weak as DePaul.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT UNLV (Mountain West). UNLV has been playing like an NCAA Tournament team for the last month or so. They don’t have an NCAA Tournament profile, and likely won’t be selected if they don’t win the auto-bid, but right now, on the court, they are an NCAA Tournament caliber team. This will NOT be an easy road game for San Diego State.

-NEVADA AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West). These are two virtual locks for the NCAA Tournament and both appear to be heading for the top half of the bracket. They are both playing for seeding, as well as trying to position themselves for the conference tournament, so it’s a chance for each of the m to pick up another notable win.

-AIR FORCE AT WYOMING (Mountain West, Front Range). We at Hoops HD Love the Front Range!!!!! This game has MAJOR 10th place implications in the Mountain West standings!! It will be a war!!!

-PROVIDENCE AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). Providence is squarely on the bubble so every game has a pivotal feel to it. A loss in a game like this could doom their season.

-EASTERN MICHIGAN AT AKRON (MAC). Akron can clinch at least a share of 1st place with a win in this one.

-VERMONT AT NEW HAMPSHIRE (America East). Vermont has already clinched 1st place in the AEast.

Posted in Bracketology, Daily Rundown, News and Notes, Survival Board | Tagged grambling | Comments Off

The Hoops HD Report (and Championship Week Video Notebook: Day 1) – Mar 4th

Posted on March 4, 2024 by David Griggs

It is our final Hoops HD Report of the regular season!! But don’t worry! We are not going anywhere! We will be posting our Hoops HD Championship Week Video Notebooks every night until Selection Sunday.

A full Hoops HD panel goes back and looks at a busy week of college hoops. We start off by taking a look at Jon Teitel’s Latest Bracket and ask him about Dayton’s and Kentucky’s seedings. Tennessee had a huge week with two big wins, and we discuss their chances of getting a #1 seed. The rest of the SEC is very strong with teams like Auburn, Alabama, Kentucky, and South Carolina all within reach of a protected seed. Houston remains the top ranked team, and they had two big wins this week as well. Wake Forest had a very rough week with two straight losses, and we debate whether or not they belong in the field right now. The Big East is bubble central with Providence, Seton Hall, and Saint John’s all fighting for a spot, and there are also three teams that are solid protected seeds in UConn, Marquette, and Creighton. We discuss all that, and more!!

We’d also like to welcome all the Selection Committee Members for the Championship Week Video Notebook!!

Check out the HOOPS HD SURVIVAL BOARD, which shows who is a lock, who is on the bubble, and who needs the auto-bid

Also, don’t miss our CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT PAGE, which has brackets, times, and viewing information for all 32 conference tourney

Check out our new HOOPS HD TEAM SHEETS AND DEFCON RATINGS for all 362 D1 teams

Finally, be sure to keep an eye on our most recent BRACKET PROJECTIONS

And, for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…

ASUN QUARTERFINALS:

HORIZON LEAGUE OPENING ROUND:

PATRIOT LEAGUE OPENING ROUND:

SUN BELT 1ST ROUND:

Posted in Bracketology, Championship Week Video Notebook, Hoops HD Report, Podcasts, Survival Board, Videocasts | 1 Comment

Selection Monday!! Hoops HD Staff Bracket (From the Puppet) – March 4th

Posted on March 4, 2024 by David Griggs

For Jon Teitel’s Conference Tournament Previews – CLICK HERE

Before you go any further, I want to make sure you know what you are looking at. This IS NOT an attempt to guess what the actual selection committee is going to do. If that is what you’re looking for, check out Jon Teitel’s bracket by CLICKING HERE. He is one of the best people on the planet at accurately guessing the selection committee. I am not nearly as good at it as he is, and I’m not even going to try to be.

This is simply what the field would look like if the season ended today, and if I was a committee of one. In other words, this is what I personally think it SHOULD be, not what I think it WILL be. I look at a lot of data when doing this, but I’m really just continually asking myself just one question. How difficult was it for a team to win the games that they did with the opportunities that they had?

Below are some comments where I explain some of the picks, and below that some of the staff members will share their thoughts. I must say that Hoops HD Staff Member should disagree with ANYTHING that I have done!! If they do, then THEY ARE FLAT OUT WRONG!!

-All the auto-bids are indicated with an asterisk (*). If anyone had to be moved a seedline to meet the bracketing rules, their original seed is indicated in parenthesis ().

OTHERS CONSIDERED: Seton Hall, Iowa, Oregon, Wake Forest, Richmond, UNLV, Ole Miss, NC State, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Memphis, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Colorado, Butler, Cincinnati, Utah, Drake

COMMENTS FROM DAVID GRIGGS:

-For the first time all year, Houston is my overall #1 seed. I think a strong case can be made for both UConn and Purdue, especially when you look at the paper, but Houston has consistently competed and won on the road, and they lead what looks to be the strongest conference in the country, and while their overall OOC SOS is weak, they did play a few showcaese games (or tried to) against Dayton, Xavier, Utah, and Texas A&M. That’s nowhere near as good as Purdue’s, but it’s not exactly a pastry cart either. Speaking of pastry carts…

-Most of the Big 12’s OOC SOS schedules are atrocious, but for the teams that I have as protected seeds, they at least beat a few teams OOC that are in the field. Baylor’s OOC SOS is actually pretty solid, as is Kansas’s, and while Iowa State’s is terrible, they did at least beat Iowa (I guess). It’s just that the rest of Iowa State’s profile is strong despite the weak OOC SOS that you almost have to give them a protected seed.

-I have Tennessee as my last #1 seed and Arizona as my top #2 seed. The win at Alabama is what led me to give it to the Vols, although it pretty much is just 1A and 1B. Arizona also beat Alabama, but Tennessee beat them at Alabama, so I value that slightly more, and think their wins at Kentucky, at Wisconsin, and their overall strength of record being 4th is what led me to pick the Vols.

-I have Dayton on the #9 line and I realize that is probably lower than anyone else who does brackets. If you look at 1000 others, almost everyone will have Dayton a couple of lines higher. I just don’t think they look any better than a #9 seed. I was actually impressed with how they played at Loyola Chicago. I know they lost, and I know Loyola is nowhere near the bubble, but that’s still a very tough place to play and a very hard game to win. But, they didn’t win it, and when I say I was impressed, I was “9 seed” impressed, which is about where I’ve thought they should be for the past month. They have no wins against anyone in the field. They are two games behind Richmond in the A10 standings, who is not in the field, and neither is anyone else in the A10. What they’ve done is good! The Flyers should be selected! And…they should be on the #9 line!

-For you bracketing rules junkies, you may notice something unusual on the 11 and 12 lines. My seedlist was: 45) South Florida (at-large), 46) McNeese (auto-bid), 47) Appalachian State (auto-bid), and 48) James Madison (at-large). This results in James Madison being placed a seedline higher than App State even though they are lower on the seedlist. I checked with the bracketing experts and they confirmed that this was the proper placement.

STAFF COMMENTS:

From Chad:

– I have no problem with Griggs taking Houston #1 overall. Although neither Purdue nor UConn lost this week, Houston picked up another huge road win in the gauntlet of the Big 12 (at Oklahoma) and has made this a 1A, 1B and 1C scenario heading down the stretch. I also am fine with Tennessee as the fourth #1 seed after their great win at Alabama.

– Boise State on the 5 line (even though it appears they were a 6 seed that was moved up a line for bracketing purposes) is ridiculous. To have them move up means they were at the top of the 6 line. I can make a case for the bottom of the 7 line at best for the Broncos. This teams has four losses outside of Quad 1 and only one non-conference win against anyone in the field (and that was over St. Mary’s back in early December when the Gaels were playing like trash). A 5 seed is within striking distance of a protected seed, and Boise State is nowhere near that realm. San Diego State (under-seeded on the 6 line) is the Mountain West team that is toeing a top 4 seed line spot. Oh, and the Aztecs are a better team than Boise State in any metric including the eye test.

– Dayton is, as Griggs noted, under-seeded by a few lines. But they are not that far away from the 9 line in my opinion so I will not yell and scream about it. I will note that they play a very ugly style of basketball, and they are a team that you really need to look beyond the “eye test” when placing in the field.

– South Florida as an at-large (which I can live with) shows me that Griggs is assuming the highest rated team from each conference is its auto-bid winner (thus, FAU gets the American auto bid). Then how does he explain giving App State the auto bid from the Sun Belt over James Madison? James Madison has lost to two teams all season (albeit one off those teams was App State twice). However, Appalachian have *FIVE* losses to Quad 3 and 4 teams and only one win over a solid tournament team (Auburn, and that was at home!). JMU should be the only Sun Belt team in this field.

– Finally, I have issues with both Pitt and Providence being in this field at all. Pitt has only two wins against tournament caliber teams, and one of those was at Duke in a game where the Blue Devils were missing two of their top players. On the other hand, the Panthers have four losses against teams not in the field, including being swept by Syracuse and losing at home to a Missouri team that had not even won a single SEC game this season. Providence does have a nice pile of very good wins, but they are 8-11 against the top three tiers — which means they have a losing record in all games against opponents with any type of a pulse. That spells NIT to me. I would suggest one of the Pac 12 teams (Utah or Colorado), Iowa, Seton Hall or a suddenly surging Memphis team as alternate selections. Or maybe just give auto bids to Richmond and UNLV to avoid having to hold your nose too much.

From Stalica:

– Kansas might be the toughest team to place among the protected seeds today. Half their schedule involves Tier 1 games and they are only 7-7 in those games (which is low by KU standards). What I’m curious to see is are they closer to the 2 line (as in are they #9 overall) or closer to the 4 line (as in potentially #12 overall)?

– I would have entertained arguments for Utah State being on the 5/6 line as opposed to Boise State right now. The Aggies have a head-to-head sweep against Boise and have a very respectable 11-4 (including 7-4 true road games) record away from home. The nonconference strength of schedule isn’t great, but Utah State only has one loss outside of Tier 1. Boise State does have multiple Tier 2/3 losses. Not exactly 5/6 seed stuff Griggs.

– I’m also convinced that Wisconsin and Michigan State both have compromising pictures/dossiers of people on the Selection Committee. The Badgers are in free fall right now and Michigan State is a team that frankly should be in the First Four (if they’re even in at all).

– I do like the South Florida/James Madison picks for final at-larges, although I would encourage both teams to at least reach their conference championship games to remain in those spots. I think Chad gave enough compelling reasons that Pitt should not be in the field, although I could stomach the Providence pick. If Richmond does win the A-10 regular season title, I would also be fine with the Spiders being at least an at-large caliber team right now.

– Remember when we thought Gonzaga was all but dead and buried? Road wins at Kentucky, San Francisco and Saint Mary’s have completely changed their fortunes and I’m sure the #1 seeds are hoping Gonzaga wins the WCC Tournament so they don’t potentially face the Zags in the 2nd round.

– I also would not be giving Memphis the Last Rites just yet. They still have one more regular season game at Florida Atlantic, and winning that one would (in my book anyway) put them back on the right side of the bubble. It would also push FAU even closer to the precipice should that happen.

Posted in Bracketology, News and Notes | Comments Off

Conference Tourney Previews, Part 1 of 2

Posted on March 4, 2024 by Jon Teitel

HoopsHD kicks off the greatest time of the year with a 2-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel commences our coverage with his predictions for the 15 conference tourneys that will be getting underway before March 12th. Tweet us if you have any comments, and check back next weekend for his picks concerning the 17 other conference tourneys.

America East tourney predicted champ: Vermont (#1 seed)
Dates: March 9-16
Location: Campus sites
2023 tourney champ: Vermont (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Vermont has won this tourney 4 times in past 6 years that it was played
Seeding: 6 of past 8 champs were #1-seed
The Catamounts struggled out of the non-conference gate by losing 3 of their final 4 games in December but have been rolling since then with only 1 loss since Christmas. Coach John Becker has made the title game 6 of the past 7 years that this tourney has been played so nobody will be able to out-coach him in March. Since the higher seed will host each tourney game in which they play, Vermont cannot wait to welcome teams to Patrick Gymnasium where they have lost exactly 1 home game all season. Defense allegedly wins championships and a team that is 9th in the nation with 62.8 PPG allowed knows the importance of guarding their own basket, as well as holding onto the ball: their 9.1 TO/game is also among the best in the nation.

Atlantic Sun tourney predicted champ: Stetson (#2 seed)
Dates: March 4-10
Location: Campus sites
2023 tourney champ: Kennesaw State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Liberty has made title game 4 times in past 5 years
Seeding: Each of past 4 champs were #1 seed
I am accustomed to automatically writing in Liberty to win this tourney but not this year…since the Flames joined Conference USA last summer. While this is 1 of those tourneys where it usually pays to pick the #1 seed, Eastern Kentucky only played the Hatters once this year and lost by 8 PTS in DeLand on February 10th so the choice is Stetson. Coach Donnie Jones had a losing record during each of his 1st 3 years in DeLand but has now won 17+ games for the 2nd straight year and will enjoy hosting as many games as possible since he only has 2 home losses all year (both by single digits). Each of his top-5 scorers are juniors or seniors so they should have enough veteran leadership to prevail in a game that goes down to the wire, especially with a 76.4 FT% that is top-35 in the nation.

Big Sky tourney predicted champ: Eastern Washington (#1 seed)
Dates: March 9-13
Location: Boise, ID
2023 tourney champ: Montana State (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Montana State has made title game each of past 3 years
Seeding: Each of past 12 champs were top-2 seed
This tourney likes the best seeds and Eastern Washington went 5-1 this year vs. Montana/Northern Colorado/Weber State so I guess we have to go with the Eagles. While they looked shaky in November after starting 1-6 with only a win over mighty Walla Walla, they have been flying high since then by winning 19 of their past 23 games. Coach David Riley had never even been a head coach as of 3 years ago, but since replacing Shantay Legans in 2021 he has proven that a 34-year old guy can come in and win games right from the start. 1 of the “biggest” factors in his success is the size of his roster, with each of his top-7 scorers standing 6’5” or taller. That is also the reason why they are so good around the basket: their 57.9 2P% is top-10 in the nation.

Big South tourney predicted champ: UNC-Asheville (#2 seed)
Dates: March 6-10
Location: High Point, NC
2023 tourney champ: UNC-Asheville (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: 6 of past 7 champs were top-2 seed
High Point appeared to be running away with this league by winning 17 of 18 after Thanksgiving, but then stubbed their toe twice in a 3-game stretch with a pair of losses to UNC-Asheville and USC Upstate…by the exact same score of 86-81! That opened the door for the Bulldogs, who will be feeling rather confident as the defending tourney champ even though the Panthers are hosting the tourney this year. Since a 5-PT loss at High Point on January 10th, Coach Mike Morrell has bounced back by winning 10 of his final 13 games. UNC-Asheville has been living by the 3 all season: their 37.4 3P% is top-30 in the nation. Unlike a lot of other teams that have a well-balanced lineup, the star of their show is SR PF Drew Pember. The Tennessee transfer and defending conference POY/DPOY has remained an all-around threat with 20.4 PPG/7.9 RPG/3.4 APG/1.9 BPG/36.5 3P%/84.7 FT%.

CAA tourney predicted champ: UNC-Wilmington (#4 seed)
Dates: March 8-12
Location: Washington, DC
2023 tourney champ: Charleston (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 5 years
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were not #1 seed
The sentimental pick (as always) is the Tribe because they are 1 of only 3 original D-1 schools (along with Army/Citadel) who have never made the NCAA tourney. That makes this 1 of those fun leagues where I get to pick someone way under the radar because that is who often wins it all. Charleston has only lost 3 games since early-December, but 2 of those losses were by single-digits to the Seahawks. After only winning 7 games in his debut season Coach Takayo Siddle has now won 21+ games for the 3rd year in a row. There is a bit of a red flag as he lost 3 of his final 5 games but 1 was by 1-PT and the other was in double-OT so there is no reason to panic. JR Trazarien White is 1 of the best scorers in the league and the next 5 scorers on his team are all seniors so this club does not lack experience. They also rely on their ball security, as their opponents’ 4 SPG is the fewest in the nation.

Horizon tourney predicted champ: Youngstown State (#2 seed)
Dates: March 5-12
Location: Campus sites and Indianapolis, IN
2023 tourney champ: Northern Kentucky (#4 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 champs in past 7 years are Cleveland State/Northern Kentucky/Wright State
Seeding: 7 of past 8 champs were not #1 seed
Oakland has been the class of the league this season…but the Grizzlies have never won this title game so perhaps they are not ready to ascend to the summit just yet. The Penguins have never hoisted this trophy since joining the league in 2001 but after sweeping Oakland they seem poised for a breakthrough. Coach Jerrod Calhoun has demonstrated the exact kind of progress an administration wishes for: 20-loss seasons during his 1st 2 years as he implements his identity, followed by 5 straight winning seasons including back-to-back 22-win campaigns. His team has been inconsistent this year but it is encouraging to see that YSU has had a whopping 5 separate winning streaks of at least 3 games so they know what it takes to get hot/stay hot. Each of their top-5 scorers are seniors and the offense is outstanding: their 81.5 PPG/77.2 FT% are both top-25 in the nation.

MVC tourney predicted champ: Drake (#2 seed)
Dates: March 7-10
Location: St. Louis, MO
2023 tourney champ: Drake (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Drake has made title game each of past 3 years
Seeding: 7 of past 9 champs were not #1 seed
Indiana State has 1 of the best offenses in the nation and seemed to be cruising to the finish line with a 22-3 record in early-February…then lost back-to-back games to a pair of teams from Illinois and allowed Drake to get right back in the picture. The Bulldogs lost the title game in both 2021 and 2022 before finally winning it in 2023, and with reigning conference POY Tucker DeVries playing even better than last year they have a great chance of defending their championship. His father is not too shabby either, as Coach Darian DeVries has now won 20+ games during each of his 6 years in charge: Love the Drake!

NEC predicted champ: Merrimack (#2 seed)
Dates: March 6-12
Location: Campus sites
2023 tourney champ: Merrimack (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 6 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: 4 of past 6 champs were not #1 seed
Merrimack won this tourney last year but was ineligible for the NCAA tourney so they finished the year on an 11-game winning streak. This year the Warriors are finally eligible for the big-time so even though this tourney has not been kind to defending champs or #1 seeds they won 9 in a row down the stretch before losing the regular season finale by 4 PTS at Sacred Heart. Coach Joe Gallo’s offense leaves a lot to be desired but his defense is top-notch: their 10 SPG is top-10 in the nation. Unlike many teams who rely on senior leadership Merrimack has exactly 1 senior among its top-5 scorers. Their top-100 non-conference strength of schedule should also pay great dividends in the postseason because they know what it is like to face good teams.

OVC predicted champ: Little Rock (#1 seed)
Dates: March 6-9
Location: Evansville, IN
2023 tourney champ: Southeast Missouri State (#5 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 4 years
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
Morehead State seemed to be coasting to the finish line after starting 11-1 in league play before losing 3 in a row in mid-February so the door is ajar. In contrast, the Trojans started 2-3 before flipping the switch and winning 12 of their final 13 games with just a 2-PT loss at SIUE on February 1st. Coach Darrell Walker had finished with a losing record each of the previous 3 years but has a group of veterans who turned things around this year as each of his top-3 scorers are seniors. They beat each of the other top-4 seeds back-to-back-to-back in February so they have already proved that they can take care of business.

Patriot predicted champ: Colgate (#1 seed)
Dates: March 5-13
Location: Campus sites
2023 tourney champ: Colgate (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Colgate has made title game in each of past 6 years
Seeding: each of past 7 champs were top-3 seed
Army is the sentimental favorite: it would be quite a sight to see the Black Knights make the NCAA tourney for the 1st time in their 122-year basketball history. However, my own sentiment lies with my fellow Penn alum Matt Langel, who has appeared in the title game during each of the past 6 years and won it 3 years in a row. The play “Hamilton” was a smash hit on Broadway and the home-cooking that the Raiders will get while playing each of their postseason games in the city of Hamilton as the higher seed should receive rave reviews: they only lost 3 home games all year by a combined 13 PTS. While they have succeeded in the past due to their incredible 3-PT shooting, this year they are getting it done with defense as their 63.4 PPG allowed is top-15 in the nation. If you like Purdue’s 6’/180-pound SO PG who is averaging 12+ PPG/5+ RPG/5+ APG named Braden Smith then you are going to love Colgate’s 6’/180-pound SO PG who is averaging 12+ PPG/5+ RPG/5+ APG named…Braeden Smith!

SoCon predicted champ: Samford (#1 seed)
Dates: March 8-11
Location: Asheville, NC
2023 tourney champ: Furman (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 5 years
Seeding: 8 of past 9 champs were #1-seed
This tourney likes #1 seeds almost as much as the Puppet likes “BuckyBall” so the pick is Samford. Coach Bucky McMillan only won 6 games in his debut season in 2021 but has now won 21+ games for the 3rd year in a row. He even took it up a notch this year by setting a school record with 26 wins (and counting). The Bulldogs lost their 1st 2 games of the season at Purdue/VCU but have been near-unstoppable since then with only 3 losses during their final 29 games. Samford has been living rather well by the 3 as their 39.8 3P% is top-5 in the nation. Each of the top-7 scorers on this veteran crew are juniors or seniors led by Australian F Achor Achor so my level of confidence is high high!

Southland predicted champ: McNeese (#1 seed)
Dates: March 10-14
Location: Lake Charles, LA
2023 tourney champ: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only champs since 2018 still in this conference is Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were not #1 seed
As much as I would like to predict a 3-peat for the Islanders, they were swept by McNeese this year so let’s Cowboy up instead. Coach Will Wade was suspended for the first 10 games of this season and given a 2-year show-cause penalty due to recruiting/bribery allegations but the main thing his team has shown is resilience while winning a school-record 28 games (and counting). They are deadly from behind the arc as their 38.8 3P% is top-10 in the nation but they can also guard the paint as their 45.2 2P% allowed is top-15 in the nation. Their average scoring margin this season has been almost 19 PPG but each of their 3 losses were by single-digits so the only question is how they will respond to a game that goes down to the wire.

Summit predicted champ: South Dakota State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 8-12
Location: Sioux Falls, SD
2023 tourney champ: Oral Roberts (#1 seed)
Fun fact: North Dakota State has made title game each of past 5 years
Seeding: 4 of past 6 champs were #1 seed
Usually the “Dakota State” team who wins this tourney is North Dakota State, but it is their neighbor to the south who is getting hot at the right time. The Jackrabbits started 7-4 in conference play but finished strong with 5 straight wins including 3 on the road. Coach Eric Henderson may never again repeat his ridiculous 30-win season of 2022 but being able to match last year’s 19-win season seems like a nice consolation prize. South Dakota State has been powerful in the paint as their 56 2P% is top-20 in the nation. I still do not know if mayo is a condiment or a sauce…but what I do know is that JR PG Zeke Mayo is 1 of the best all-around players in this league: 19.3 PPG/5.9 RPG/3.6 APG/1.2 SPG/37.7 3P%/83.2 FT%.

Sun Belt predicted champ: James Madison (#2 seed)
Dates: March 5-11
Location: Pensacola, FL
2023 tourney champ: Louisiana (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 3 different champs in past 3 years
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were not #1 seed
Appalachian State swept the Dukes in January and must be considered the favorite so we will have to depend on that old reliable “it is hard to beat a team 3 times in 1 season” adage. It also helps that this tournament has not been kinds to #1 seeds, but how often do you see a #2 seed with 28 wins?! Coach Mark Byington has increased his win total during each of his 4 years in Harrisonburg and already set a school record this year. The key has been perimeter defense, as their 28.5 3P% allowed is #3 in the nation…but not even #1 in their own conference because Louisiana is at 27.8 3P% allowed. If you want to beat JMU then you better bring your A-game on defense because it will be hard to outscore a team whose 84.6 PPG is top-10 in the nation.

WCC predicted champ: St. Mary’s (#1 seed)
Dates: March 7-12
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2023 tourney champ: Gonzaga (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Gonzaga has won 20 titles in past 25 years and finished 2nd each of the other 5 times
Seeding: 23 of past 25 champs were top-2 seed
Gonzaga coach Mark Few’s dominance of this conference since taking over in Spokane in 1999 remains almost incomprehensible: 23 straight NCAA tourney appearances (not counting the COVID cancellation), 22 regular season titles, 19 conference tourney titles, while being named conference COY a tremendous 14 times. However, it is St. Mary’s who has been doing their best Bulldog impersonation this season by winning 21 of 22 games from early-December through late-February. Granted, losing to Gonzaga at home by double-digits last Saturday is not exactly the momentum you want to finish the regular season with, but the Gaels can still take comfort in their dominant defense: their 58.5 PPG allowed is #2 in the nation. JR PG Augustas Marciulionis was underwhelming during his 1st 2 years but has made the leap in year #3 and appears to be the best basketball import from Lithuania since…his Hall of Fame father Sarunas!

Posted in News and Notes | 1 Comment

Hoops HD Daily Rundown – Monday, Mar 4th

Posted on March 4, 2024 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES:

-For the first edition of our CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK VIDEO NOTEBOOK – CLICK HERE

-As far as the teams in play for the NCAA Tournament, Sunday was a pretty chalky day. UConn blew out Seton Hall, Drake beat Bradley at home 74-66 to at least keep themselves solidly on the board, Indiana State held off Murray State at home, Nebraska held serve against Rutgers, and Colorado beat Stanford. No one’s needle really moved at all.

-The crazy game of the day was Memphis’s comeback win over UAB. Late in the first half, UAB had a 61-39 lead at Memphis. Memphis ended up winning 106-87. If you’re doing the math, that’s a 67-26 run to close the game. UAB Coach Andy Kennedy wasn’t around for all of it. He ended up getting ejected as things were totally falling apart.

HOOPS HD SURVIVAL BOARD WATCH (Click Here to View the Board):

SOUTHLAND:
-Incarnate Word: out with a loss plus a win by either Houston Christian or New Orleans
-Houston Christian: out with a loss + wins by all of Southeastern Louisiana, New Orleans and Texas A&M-Commerce

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-DUKE AT NC STATE (ACC). Duke is a solid protected seed and NC State is nowhere near the field, but this could still be a tough game to win because it’s on the road, it’s a rivalry game, and NC State will likely be way up for it.

-TEXAS AT BAYLOR (Big 12). Texas is solidly in the field so long as they hold serve and has some nice wins. They can really improve their resume and potential seeding with a road win in this one. Baylor appears to be on pace for a protected seed if they hold serve and can add another notable win to their resume. This has turned into a fun series in recent years, but this will be the last regular season meeting between the the two for the foreseeable future.

-HOUSTON CHRISTIAN AT MCNEESE (Southland). McNeese should get a serious look by the committee if they win out, but fail to win the Southland Tournament.

-UMES AT NORFOLK STATE (MEAC). Norfolk State can clinch at least a share of 1st place with a win

-EASTERN WASHINGTON AT SACRAMENTO STATE (Big Sky). Easter Washington has already clinched 1st place in the Big Sky.

-BETHUNE COOKMAN AT GRAMBLING (SWAC). Grambling can clinch at least a share of 1st place with a win tonight.

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes, Survival Board | Comments Off

Championship Week Video Notebook: Day 0

Posted on March 3, 2024 by David Griggs

WELCOME SELECTION COMMITTEE MEMBERS!!! We are here to help!! We are here to tell you everything you should be doing!!

CLICK HERE for the HOOPS HD SURVIVAL BOARD, which shows who is a lock, who is on the bubble, and who needs the auto-bid

CLICK HERE for our CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT INFO PAGE, which has brackets, times, and viewing information for all 32 conference tourney

CLICK HERE for our most recent BRACKET PROJECTIONS

CLICK HERE for all of the Hoops HD Team Sheets and DEFCON Ratings

Championship Week officially gets underway tomorrow with the Opening Round of the Atlantic Sun Tournament!! The Survive and Advance portion of the season is officially here!! Chad, David Dorman, and David Griggs take an in depth look at the opening round of the Atlantic Sun Tournament, as well as give our picks as to who we think can win the auto-bid.