Under The Radar Game of the Day: Southern Illinois at Drake

For Chad Sherwood’s initial bracket projection (in his own view) for the season – CLICK HERE

For Jon Teitel’s initial bracket projection (in an attempt to forecast the Selection Committee) for the season – CLICK HERE

Southern Illinois (9-6, 2-0 MVC) at Drake (11-4, 0-2 MVC) – 8:00 PM EST (ESPN+)

EDITOR’S NOTE: Today’s Toledo-Buffalo matchup would have been the UTR Game of the Day, but Buffalo’s Top 25 ranking disqualifies them from these matchups for now.

Tonight’s UTR Game of the Day takes place in Des Moines, Iowa where the Salukis of Southern Illinois pay a visit to play the Drake Bulldogs. Southern Illinois was expected to be one of the top UTR teams going into the season, but have hit a snag this year with losses at Kentucky, Murray State, twice to Buffalo, and ugly losses against UMass and Winthrop. Their only noncon win of note was at home against A-10 favorite Saint Louis. Nonetheless, they are off to a better start in conference play with back-to-back wins against Missouri State at home and at Northern Iowa. Kavion Pippen had 18 points in the Salukis’ win against Northern Iowa over the weekend.

Drake came into conference play suddenly looking like a potential favorite to win the Missouri Valley after an 11-2 start. A double-overtime loss at Evansville was tough enough to endure, but the crushing blow from that game was the loss of star player Nick Norton to an ACL tear – he is done for the season for the Bulldogs. In their first game without Norton, Drake lost to Loyola-Chicago after surrendering 12 3-point shots to the Ramblers during that contest.

In the meantime, don’t forget that Barry Hinson’s BBQ Sauce is still available for purchase:

 

COMMENTS FROM DAVID:  Gee, great game!!  TOO BAD IT’S TOMORROW NIGHT!!!  Stalica doesn’t know what day it is!!!  #StalicaDoesNotKnowWhatDayItIs   Let’s get this trending on Twitter!!!

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Bracket Projection (Chad) 1-6-2019

Every year, I do the HoopsHD Preseason Bracket and thereafter swear off bracket projections until at least the middle of January.  Quite simply, until every team has 3-5 conference games under their belts, I simply do not think enough data exists to project a field of 68.  I have broken my rule this year, however, by about 2 weeks and present below my first regular season projection.  please note that this projection is based solely on what teams have done to date, and does not make any prediction about how things will play out in the future.  Also note that I have selected the teams that I feel are the best in each conference as the auto-bid winners, even if they are not currently in first place.

BRACKET NOTES

  1. I have six ACC teams on the top four seed lines, resulting in two regions (South and East) with multiple protected seeds from the same league.
  2. The ACC and SEC both put 8 teams in the field, but were blown away by the Big Ten with 10 teams!  The Big Twelve has six entrants and the Big East has 5.
  3. The only other multi-big leagues were the American (3 teams), WCC (2) and SoCon (2).  The later two got their second teams in the First Four.  The Atlantic Ten, Mountain West and Pac Twleve are all single-bid conferences.
  4. Although the above statements seem to indicate that I am favoring the power conferences, I would note that I had both Georgia State and Lipscomb rated higher than the last of my First Four teams.  Lipscomb unfortunately had to be bounced from the 12 line down to the 13 line (with the First Four game between Wofford and Florida moving up) because there were a ton of problems properly placing the First Four games due to San Jose being the only Friday/Sunday site on the 12 or 13 lines.
  5. I also had two more non-power conference schools among my top four teams out.  Those four, in order, were Clemson, Furman, Murray State and Arizona.  The next four out were Butler, VCU, Kansas State and Temple.  Also considered were Georgetown, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Providence, Northwestern, Tulsa, Utah State, Ball State, Dayton, Toledo and Washington.
  6. Because I only look at results to date, I did not penalize Kansas despite the news today that Azubuike is out for the season.  I don’t expect them to stay this high on the seed list though unless they learn how to play a lot better without him very fast.
  7. I don’t look at matchups that I created until I have already built the bracket, but the South Region looks amazing to me in terms of the number of great teams and name-brand schools.

COMMENTS FROM HOOPSHD STAFF

COMMENTS FROM DAVID: 

-I hate to say this, but I agree with a lot of what Chad has done.  I really like Belmont, and have been seeding them high all year, but it’s kind of hard to keep a team safely inside the bubble that lost at home to Jacksonville State.  That was a conference game, but for all practical purposes it was the equivalent of losing a home buy game, so as much as I like them, Chad is being kinda generous to have them in at all.

-Arizona State on the #8 line is interesting.  They got their crap together over the weekend and buried Colorado, but prior to that they were in the midst of a seven game stretch where they either lost (Nevada, Vandy, Princeton, Utah) or looked pathetic (Georgia, Texas Southern) in six of those games, and then beat a full strength Kansas team at home in one of those games.  I guess when you average all that out it comes out to about a #8 seed, but I question whether or not they’re good enough to even finish that high once it’s over.

-I really don’t agree at all with Gonzaga on the #3 line.  I understand the reasoning behind putting them there.  I just think that the reasoning is wrong, and I KNOW that Chad is wrong!!  Gonzaga has two losses away from home, one was by 3pts to Tennessee, and the other was on the road against North Carolina.  Both of those teams are protected seeds, and at neither game was Gonzaga at full strength.  They also beat Duke away from home.  I don’t know how you seed them below Duke, but Chad has found a way to do it.  Chad = WRONG!!!

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Bracketology 2019: March Madness Predictions (Version 1.0)

We are only 10 weeks away from Selection Sunday as we begin to make our NCAA tourney predictions. Last March HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 66 of the 68 teams that made the tourney, 65 of which were within 1 spot of their actual seed, including 42 right on the money. He will spend the upcoming months predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on March 17th. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and if you agree or disagree then feel free to tweet us. To see how we stack up with other websites (ranked 9th out of 127 entries over the past 5 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Duke (ACC)
1: Michigan (Big 10)
1: Virginia (ACC)
1: Kansas (Big 12)

2: Tennessee (SEC)
2: Gonzaga (WCC)
2: Michigan State (Big 10)
2: Texas Tech (Big 12)

3: Nevada (MWC)
3: North Carolina (ACC)
3: Auburn (SEC)
3: Virginia Tech (ACC)

4: Oklahoma (Big 12)
4: Florida State (ACC)
4: Ohio State (Big 10)
4: Mississippi State (SEC)

5: Kentucky (SEC)
5: Houston (AAC)
5: Indiana (Big 10)
5: Wisconsin (Big 10)

6: Nebraska (Big 10)
6: Marquette (Big East)
6: NC State (ACC)
6: Iowa State (Big 12)

7: Buffalo (MAC)
7: Cincinnati (AAC)
7: TCU (Big 12)
7: Villanova (Big East)

8: Louisville (ACC)
8: Seton Hall (Big East)
8: St. John’s (Big East)
8: Purdue (Big 10)

9: Kansas State (Big 12)
9: Arizona State (Pac-12)
9: LSU (SEC)
9: Iowa (Big 10)

10: Florida (SEC)
10: Creighton (Big East)
10: Minnesota (Big 10)
10: Maryland (Big 10)

11: Texas (Big 12)
11: UCF (AAC)
11: Butler (Big East)
11: Syracuse (ACC)
11: Arizona (Pac-12)
11: Clemson (ACC)

12: VCU (A-10)
12: Wofford (SoCon)
12: Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun)
12: Murray State (OVC)

13: Charleston (CAA)
13: North Texas (C-USA)
13: New Mexico State (WAC)
13: Yale (Ivy)

14: Loyola-Chicago (MVC)
14: UC Irvine (Big West)
14: Texas State (Sun Belt)
14: Vermont (America East)

15: South Dakota State (Summit)
15: Montana (Big Sky)
15: Radford (Big South)
15: Northern Kentucky (Horizon)

16: Lehigh (Patriot)
16: Abilene Christian (Southland)
16: Rider (MAAC)
16: Texas Southern (SWAC)
16: Wagner (NEC)
16: North Carolina A&T (MEAC)

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Jan 6th

NEWS AND NOTES

-Virginia = VERY GOOD!  They blew out Florida State yesterday, and the only reason the final score looked even moderately respectable is because of a late game run FSU made once all the starters were out of the game.

-Kansas was blown out on the road at Iowa State.  I know it’s really tough to win there, but that’s usually because Iowa State themselves is pretty good.  I didn’t think they’d be quite as good this year, but all indications seem to be that they are.

-Nevada was another top ten team that was blown to pieces on the road last night.  This one was particularly surprising because New Mexico had looked totally pitiful all year long, but they suddenly seem to have kicked things into gear now.  If they can keep playing at that level they’ll make quite a bit of noise in MWC play.

-Michigan State got a huge road win at Ohio State.  Their resume was already pretty good, but this is probably now the best win on it considering it was on the road against a ranked team.

-Kentucky went down at Alabama.  The Wildcats didn’t shoot the ball well, but still nearly played their way back into it in the final seconds, but the Crimson Tide held on.  It was a big win on paper, but a win like this also does a lot to get that fanbase excited about basketball, so it should be a fun ride for them the rest of the way.

-UCF got a nice road win at UConn.  They’re now 12-2 overall on the season and should be able to play their way safely inside the bubble if they keep it up.

-Cincinnati did something yesterday that was not nice at all.  They lost on the road to East Carolina.  The best thing I can say about ECU is that they haven’t looked totally terrible, but it’s still the kind of game that a team like Cincinnati should be expected to win.  This will look bad on their resume, and they can’t afford too many more losses to sub-NIT teams if they want to feel safe come March.

-Saint John’s picked up another thrilling overtime win as they knocked off Georgetown on the road.  The more they play well in conference, the more I believe in them.  They should be in the rankings when they come out tomorrow.

-Florida, who needed to string together some wins just to get into the safe zone, lost at home to South Carolina.  Florida really could have done without that.

-A few UTR shoutouts, Stony Brook now has eight true road wins.  I believe that’s more than anyone in the nation.  Georgia State picked up a really nice road win at Texas State, who was 12-2 on the year, and Princeton knocked off their rival Penn in overtime in the Ivy League opener.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-XAVIER AT MARQUETTE (Big East).  Marquette looks to be one of the best, if not the best, teams in the Big East and may be good enough to ten up with a protected seed.  They need to take care of business in games like this at home to help make it happen.  They’re coming off a rather decisive road loss to Saint John’s and are still looking for their first conference win.

-SETON HALL AT DEPAUL (Big East).  I like what Seton Hall has been able to do this year and don’t think they’ll have too much trouble picking up another road win and staying perfect in Big East play.

-RHODE ISLAND AT SAINT LOUIS (Atlantic Ten).  SLU is one of just a few A10 teams that has shown signs of life this season.  They’ll need to blow through league play in order to end up on the right side of the bubble.

-TEMPLE AT WICHITA STATE (American).  Temple can play their way into the field, but they don’t have the biggest margin for error in the world.  This is the kind of road game that they need to be able to win.

-INDIANA AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten).  Both teams are in the rankings, and Michigan is unbeaten and looking like a #1 seed right now.  If the Hoosiers are able to pull this off it’d be a season defining win for them.

-NEBRASKA AT IOWA (Big Ten).  Both teams have played well at times, but both still have room to improve.  This is the kind of win that would really look good on either team’s resume.

-MEMPHIS AT HOUSTON (American).  Houston is unbeaten and continues to look impressive, especially at home.  They have a few tougher tests ahead, but they should be able to hold serve in this one today.

-MIAMI FL AT LOUISVILLE (ACC).  It’s the conference opener for Louisville, who should be okay for a bid as long as they hold serve for the rest of the way, which means being able to win at home in games like this.

-WISCONSIN AT PENN STATE (Big Ten).  Wisky has lost two straight, and needs to get things turned back around.  Penn State has been off track all season long and tonight they’ll be without head coach Patrick Chambers who is serving a one game suspension.

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Rivals Roadtrip: HoopsHD heads west to attend the Princeton-ASU game

As a Penn/Arizona alum, 1 of the all-time favorite games I attended took place on December 29, 1996. Only a few months after graduating from college in Philly, I had moved back to Phoenix and noticed that my Quakers were heading to Tucson to face the nationally-ranked Wildcats. I scored a press pass, drove 2 hours south to the McKale Center, wore some red and blue (covering my bases with both schools’ colors!), and got to watch Lute Olson beat up on Fran Dunphy as the Cats won by a score of 93-51 in the Fiesta Bowl Classic. I was a little disappointed in the butt-whipping…until Arizona won the NCAA title a few months later and I realized just how good that team actually was. Fast-forward 22 years to the day: I was heading back to Phoenix for some much-needed vacation and noticed that my Quakers’ archrivals (Princeton) were heading to Tempe to face my Wildcats’ archrivals (ASU) on December 29, 2018. I considered the symmetry, scored a press pass, and headed to the Wells Fargo Arena to cheer for…the refs?!

We are not in Georgetown anymore, Dorothy: a pregame meal of cookies/water (seriously!?), no seat directly behind the basket (although cannot complain about sitting 15 rows behind the Princeton bench), and since the game is being televised on the Pac-12 Network that guy next to me in the bathroom is indeed…Bill Walton!! As usual, the worst seat in the house is directly behind the 6’11” guy who likes to stand up:

Just watching Princeton warm up I could tell that this might not be a slam dunk for the Sun Devils even though they were only 1 week removed from upsetting #1-ranked Kansas. My 1st clue was the non-sell-out during winter break:

At least the band was out in full force:

Not sure if the gates of hell are alive and well in Tempe but at least the students majoring in 14th century Italian poetry bring their A game:

Oh I get it: Devils, Sparky, hell. I see what you did there:

It certainly did not look like hell along the baseline:

Tigers’ PG Jose Morales somehow made an underhanded scoop shot from half-court but what really caught my eye was the team’s pregame drills: instead of boring old layup lines and jump shots, Coach Mitch Henderson had his team go through zone defense drills with 4 players on the perimeter who just shifted back and forth along the 3-PT line for 15 seconds at a time.

Since Coach Bobby Hurley was coming off of the aforementioned huge win, I decided to research how he did as a player at Duke in the games directly after beating a #1 team. It was a pretty small sample size (in large part due to the fact that he was part of a top-ranked team for much of his college career) but it turns out that he was 2-for-2:

In the 1991 Final 4 he beat #1 UNLV and followed that up by beating Kansas in the title game.
In December of 1992 he beat #1 Michigan and followed that up by beating Northeastern.

And away we go:

There was no sign of Princeton’s 3rd-leading scorer Myles Stephens (who was out due to a sore knee), so perhaps the Tigers would not be as ferocious as necessary. Fortunately, the desert air seemed to agree with Jerome Desrosiers as he made a trio of threes (despite only making 6 shots from behind the arc all season!) en route to 12 PTS in the 1st half (which tied his season-high for an entire game).

ASU’s 3 leading scorers vs. the Jayhawks were Luguentz Dort/Zylan Cheatham/Rob Edwards. The trio came out ice-cold in the 1st half, combining for 3 PTS/1-12 FG/6 fouls, and the entire team could not buy a bucket from long distance (as the Devils were 0-7 from behind the 3-PT line). Romello White single-handedly kept his team in the game with a series of layups/put-backs/dunks: 13 PTS/10 REB/2 BLK/0 TO in the 1st half!

The final minute of the half illustrated how much coaching actually goes into a game, as both coaches called a use-it-or-lose-it timeout to set up an offensive play. Coach Hurley spends an awful lot of time yelling at the refs during a game but was still composed enough to draw up 1 last play. Coach Henderson huddled up in response to draw up a defensive plan of action:

He decided to have his team switch from its normal man-to-man defense into a zone defense on ASU’s final possession of the half…and forced the Devils into a shot-clock violation while maintaining a 37-30 lead over the home team at the break.

Despite a 3 from Devin Cannady to give the Tigers a 40-30 lead in the 2nd half, Princeton picked up its 5th team foul less than 7 minutes after halftime so you just knew that ASU would have a chance to get back into the game. The Sun Devils finally got their offense going thanks to their backcourt. Remy Martin has a habit of taking long jumpers, which is known as 1 of the least efficient shots in the sport, but he makes so many of them (a team-high 19 PTS) that there is a reason he is allowed to take them. Rob Edwards ended his team’s 0-10 3-PT drought by draining back-to-back 3s midway through the 2nd half to give his team a 51-49 lead and get the crowd back into it. However, White picked up his on 4th foul with 9:28 left before heading to the bench, which swung the momentum back to Princeton, and it became a total team effort. Cannady continued making threes (finishing with a game-high 21 PTS) but much of the credit goes to Sebastian Much, who had only scored 23 PTS all season. He turned into Sebastian Clutch in the final minutes: he flung in a 3 to beat the shot-clock and close the deficit to 61-60, then made a drive/layup to tie it at 62, another 3 to give his team a 65-64 lead, then a sweet pass to Richmond Arriguzoh who got fouled with 25 seconds left while trailing by 1 PT. The big man stepped up to the line and tried to stay focused while confronted with the curtain of distraction. Having never seen it in person before, I was impressed with all of the different costume changes…although Princeton seemed unimpressed based on its 9-12 performance at the FT line in the 2nd half:

  

  

  

Entering the game at 73.9 FT% this year, Arriguzoh calmly converted 2 FTs to give his team a 67-66 lead and finish the day 9-10 from the line. ASU huddled up for the final time and tried to draw up a winning play:

They had 3 chances in the final 10 seconds: Edwards missed a pair of threes and Dort missed a jumper as the home team lost by 1 PT.

In the postgame press conference I asked Coach Hurley if his team’s 2-15 shooting from 3-PT range was due to a cold shooting night or Princeton’s defense or something else. He said there were “open threes that we did not cash in on”, and that he was even more concerned about all the layups/put-backs that did not wall, as those had a greater impact on the outcome of the game:

That puts a wrap on 2018, happy New Year to all…and always keep your enemies close:

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Under The Radar Game of the Day: The Citadel at Furman

For today’s News, Notes and the first weekend of highlighted conference games – CLICK HERE

For Part Two of Jon Teitel’s non-conference teams by conference – CLICK HERE

The Citadel (9-4, 1-1 SoCon) at Furman (13-2, 2-1) – 4:00 PM EST (ESPN3)

Today’s UTR Game of the Day matches up a pair of in-state foes in South Carolina as the Bulldogs of Citadel travel upstate to Greenville to play the Furman Paladins. The Citadel had a seven-game winning streak back in December that included wins at South Florida and at Campbell, but have given up at least 110 points per game in back-to-back losses against Longwood at home and at Wofford. Matt Frierson did crack the 1,000 point club during the Bulldogs’ loss at Wofford two days ago. As a team, Citadel is currently averaging 97.7 points per game but are also surrendering 85.7 points per game at the moment.

Furman comes into the game with a 71-58 home win against Mercer to up their record to 2-1 in SoCon play. This was after a two-game losing streak that included blowout losses at Louisiana State and East Tennessee State. Still, they should get a little mileage out of their win at Loyola-Chicago and more mileage out of their win at Villanova from back in March. Matt Rafferty (16.9 PPG, 9.0 RPG) and Jordan Lyons (16.9 PPG) lead the Paladins in scoring and both figure to have big days today given the fast tempo that Citadel employs in their games.

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